What is the likelihood of a flu pandemic
The evolution of flu viruses cannot be predicted. This makes it difficult to know if or when a virus might mutate to become easily transmittable among humans. Therefore, it is impossible to say when another pandemic will arise, or whether it will be mild or severe.
However, the World Health Organisation (WHO) asserts that once a virus allows for efficient human-to-human transmission, a pandemic can occur. Because of high global mobility and interconnection, illness could spread quickly and, if the virus has a high fatality rate, threaten millions of lives around the world. 10
A lesson from the past
Pandemics are a reality. Although there is some debate amongst experts, health records show at least 7 - 10 influenza pandemics over the past 300 years.24,25
Dates of Pandemics in the past 300 years:
| Year | Documented Geographical Impact |
| 1729 - 1730 | Origin Russia, spreading westward to all Europe |
| 1781 - 1782 | Origin China, spreading to Russia, all of Europe and USA |
| 1830 - 1833 | Origin China, spreading southwards to India, SE Asia and eventually Europe and USA |
| 1898 - 1900 | Origin unknown |
| 1918 - 1920 | Origin unknown, global impact |
| 1957 - 1958 | Origin China, spreading to Southern Hemisphere and then Northern Hemisphere the following winter |
| 1968 - 1969 | Origin Hong Kong |