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How would a pandemic impact my organisation


Decline in business travel 5

As a pandemic spreads, international travel would dramatically decline as people avoided flu “hotspots” and Governments restricted travel. In all likelihood, people would quarantine themselves and their families by staying at home more.  Nonessential activities requiring social contact would be sharply curtailed, leading to significant declines in retail trade. People would avoid public places, such as shopping malls, community centres, places of worship, and public transport.  Attendance at theatres, sporting events, museums, and restaurants would decline.

Businesses would suffer5

It seems likely that many schools would close, and even if they did not, attendance would fall dramatically as parents kept their children at home. In either event, large-scale school closings would lead to a spike in workplace absences because parents would stay home to care for their children even if they were not sick. The impact on businesses of all kinds due to employee absenteeism would be dramatic. The Australian government estimates that businesses should plan for 30 - 50% staff absences at the peak of a pandemic. Staff absences can be expected for many reasons:

 

Supply-side impact5

Lost Employee Productivity

  • Increase in absenteeism due to illness, caring for sick, and social distancing policies; could reach 30 - 50% during peaks
  • Risk that some companies do not have capacity to support increases in telecommuting

Disruption of Supply Chains

  • Disruption of transportation networks that limit ability to receive and distribute goods

Operations and Facilities Shutdown

  • Increase in absenteeism due to illness, caring for sick, and social distancing policies; could reach 30 - 50% during peaks
  • Inability to maintain operations because of shortages of staff, shortages of supplies, or a slowdown in servicing utilities
  • Closure of facilities due to implementation of policies to contain the pandemic (e.g. social distancing)
  • School closings would likely happen very early in a pandemic and could occur on short notice

Drop in Demand for Products and Services

  • Certain companies will see drop in demand for products and services
    - Reduction in customer base due to illness
    - Customers likely to avoid public shopping areas, restaurants, entertainment facilities, etc.
    - Potential decline in income and discretionary spending as businesses are forced to halt operations
  • Closure of facilities due to implementation of policies to contain the pandemic (e.g. social distancing)