How would a pandemic impact mortality
A wide range of estimates 10
Central to preparedness planning is estimating the mortality rates of the next pandemic. Experts' answers to this fundamental question have ranged from 2 million to more than 50 million. All of these predictions are scientifically grounded. The reasons for the wide range of estimates are numerous.
Some estimates are based on extrapolations from past pandemics, but significant details of these events are disputed, such as the true numbers of resulting deaths. The most precise predictions are based on the pandemic in 1968, but even in this case estimates vary from 1 million to 4 million deaths. Similarly, the number of deaths from the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is estimated by different investigators to range from 20 million to well over 50 million.
Extrapolations are problematic because the world of today is a different place from the world of 1918. The impact of greatly improved nutrition and healthcare needs to be weighed against the contribution the increase in international travel would have on global spread. The specific characteristics of a future pandemic virus cannot be predicted. It may affect 20% to 50% of the total population. It is also unknown how pathogenic a novel virus would be.
Millions likely to be affected—even in a moderate pandemic10
Even in the best case scenarios of the next pandemic, 2 to 7 million people could die and tens of millions would require medical attention worldwide.
If containment of an influenza outbreak fails the estimate of the number of people likely to be effected in Australia are:5
Characteristic | Moderate (1958/68-like) | Severe (1918-like) |
| Illness | 7 million (30%) | 7 million (30%) |
| Outpatient medical care | 1 million | 7.5 million |
| Hospitalisations | 57,900 | 148,000 |
| Deaths | 13,000 | 44,000 |
During the 1919 pandemic in NSW the average absenteeism rates were 37% from January to September 1919 across a broad range of work places. Highest absenteeism were in banks, retail, factories and government11
The UK influenza pandemic contingency plan estimates that among 1,000 workers:11
Likely work place effects | Staff Effected |
| Develop Illness | 250 |
Require a GP or emergency department visit | 38 |
| Hospitalised | 1 |
| Die | 1 |